New SWIFT paper: The influence of global climate drivers on monsoon onset variability in Nigeria using S2S models

Published May 2019 in Modeling Earth Systems and Environment; this paper is OPEN ACCESS.

Authors: Eniola Olaniyan (Nigerian Meteorological Agency); Elijah A. Adefisan, (Federal University of Technology Akure and ACMAD); Ahmed A. Balogun, (Federal University of Technology, Akure); Kamoru A. Lawal, (Nigerian Meteorological Agency)

This study considered the implications of rainfall on the sustainability of the socio-economic activities in Nigeria. It assessed the skill of three sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) models, CMA, ECMWF, and UKMO, in predicting monsoon onset and its variability over Nigeria. The paper  examined the global drivers modulating the variability and their teleconnections with rainfall onset anomaly. The results showed that each of the models used exhibits unique and different characteristics over each classified region in Nigeria. For instance, all three models are able to simulate the Northwards migration of the onset dates adequately with inherent biases. While the biases of both the CMA and the ECMWF models improve progressively towards the Sahel, the bias of the UKMO model over the Gulf of Guinea is considerably smaller (±10 days). In the case of the onset anomaly, results showed that despite the poor performance of the models over the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel, there is a considerable improvement in the correlation skill of the models over the Savannah.
This paper results from SWIFT Work Package 6, S2S.

African SWIFT Principal Investigator wins prestigious award

Professor Alan Blyth (far left) at African SWIFT Executive meeting in Nairobi.

We are delighted to announce that African SWIFT Principal Investigator, Professor Alan Blyth from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Leeds, has been awarded the prestigious Hugh Robert Mill Award 2018 by the Royal Meteorological Society. The award will be announced and presented at the RMetS Annual General Meeting in London on 15th May 2019. The Society’s awards for excellence in meteorology are held in high regard across the international community. Professor Alan Blyth is an established expert in cloud physics, convection, observations of the atmosphere, atmospheric instrumentation, flooding; and weather forecasts. He currently leads numerous projects within NCAS and the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds.

RMetS website news.

On Monday 22 October Ben Lamptey, #AfricanSWIFT Cheney Fellow gave a fascinating public lecture at @UniversityLeedstwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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Day 2 of Sub-seasonal to seasonal testbed meeting in Ngong, Kenya. Engaging with weather forecast users to design p… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Partnering with other East African weather & climate projects to better provide sub-seasonal to seasonal weather fo… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Sub-seasonal to seasonal #AfricanSWIFT testbed kicks off today! twitter.com/JoshTalib/stat…