The publications listed below were supported by UK Research and Innovation as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund, African SWIFT programme, grant number NE/P021077/1.
Policy briefs
- The future of African nowcasting
- The future of African weather forecasting
- Exploiting Sub-seasonal forecast predictability in Africa: a key to sustainable forecasting
White Papers
Research papers
2023
- Peter G. Hill, Thorwald H. M. Stein, Carlo Cafaro (2023)
Convective systems and rainfall in East Africa. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4540 - Imoleayo E. Gbode, Vincent O. Ajayi, Elijah A. Adefisan, Emmanuel C. Okogbue, Carlo Cafaro, Eniola A. Olaniyan, Stephen B. Ogungbenro, Ayodeji Oluleye, Kamoru A. Lawal, Jerome A. Omotosho, Thorwald Stein (2023)
Verification of multiresolution model forecasts of heavy rainfall events from 23 to 26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Applications | Science and Technology for Weather and Climate, Vol 30, iss 4, July/August 2023
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2135
2022
- Michael Baidu, Juliane Schwendike, John H. Marsham, Caroline Bain (2022)
Effects of vertical wind shear on intensities of mesoscale convective systems over West and Central Africa. Atmospheric Letters, Vol 23, iss 8 e1094
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1094 - Balogun, R.A., Adefisan, E.A., Adeyewa, Z.D., Okogbue, E.C. and Akinbobola, A. (2022)
Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and Convective Properties over West and Central Africa. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences , 12, 74-85.
https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2022.121006 - Nwamaka Okeke-Ogbuafor1, Andrea Taylor, Andrew Dougill, Selina Stead, Tim Gray (2022)
Alleviating impacts of climate change on fishing communities using weather information to improve fishers’ resilience. Frontiers in Environmental Science
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.951245 - Marian Amoakowaah Osei, Michael Padi, Bashiru Yahaya, Michael Baidu, Emmanuel Quansah, Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, Edmund I. Yamba, Samuel Owusu-Ansah, Leonard K. Amekudzi (2022)
The dynamics of dry and wet monsoon MCS formation over West Africa: Case assessment of February 13, 2018 and June 18, 2018. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4399 - Marian Amoakowaah Osei, Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, Jacob Agyekum, Jesse Ashong, Samuel Owusu Ansah, Maureen Abla Ahiataku, Frank Baffour-Ata, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Winifred Ayinpogbilla Atiah, Michael Padi, Johnson Ameho, Bashiru Yahaya, Joseph Portuphy, Benjamin Lamptey (2022)
Environment of severe storm formations over West Africa on the 26-28 June 2018. Meteorological Applications, Vol 30, iss 1 e2109
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2109 - Marian Amoakowaah Osei, Craig R. Ferguson, Emmanuel Quansah, Michael Padi, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Sylvester Danuor (2022)
West Africa’s moist convective environment as observed by the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS). International Journal of Climatology
http://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7983 - Douglas J. Parker, Alan M. Blyth, Steven J. Woolnough, Andrew J. Dougill, Caroline L. Bain, Estelle de Coning, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paolo Ruti, Elijah A. Adefisan, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Cathryn E. Birch, Carlo Cafaro, Hamish Carr, Benard Chanzu, Samantha J. Clarke, Helen Coskeran, Sylvester K. Danuor, Felipe M. de Andrade, Kone Diakaria, Cheikh Dione, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer K. Fletcher, Amadou T. Gaye, James L. Groves, Masilin Gudoshava, Andrew J. Hartley, Linda C. Hirons, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Tamora D. James, Kamoru A. Lawal, John H. Marsham, J. N. Mutemi, Emmanuel Chilekwu Okogbue, Eniola Olaniyan, J. B. Omotosho, Joseph Portuphy, Alexander J. Roberts, Juliane Schwendike, Zewdu T. Segele, Thorwald H. M. Stein, Andrea L. Taylor, Christopher M. Taylor, Tanya A. Warnaars, Stuart Webster, Beth J. Woodhams, and Lorraine Youds (2022)
The African SWIFT Project – Growing Science Capability to Bring about a Revolution in Weather Prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol 103, iss 2
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0047.1
2021
- Cafaro, C., Woodhams, B. J., Stein, T. H. M., Birch, C. E., Webster, S., Bain, C. L., Hartley, A., Clarke, S., Ferrett, S., & Hill, P. (2021).
Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa? Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0172.1 - de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeon, D., Hirons, L. C., Woolnough, S. J., & Black, E. (2021).
Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: Forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting, 36(1), 265-284. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1 - Hirons, L.C., Thompson, E, Dione, C., Indasi, V.S., Kilavi, M., Nkiaka, E, Talib, J., Visman, E., Adefisan, E.A., de Andrade, F.M., Ashong, J., Mwesigwa, J.B., Boult, V.L., Diédhiou, T.,Konte, O., Gudoshava, M., Kiptum, C., Amoah, R.K., … Woolnough, S. (2021).
Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services Volume 23, August 2021, 100246
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246 - Msemo, H. E., Finney, D. L. & Mbuya, S. I. (2021).
Forgotten accounts of tropical cyclones making landfall in Tanzania. Weather.
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3921 - Muita, R., Dougill, A., Mutmi, J., Aura, S., Graham, R., Awolala, D., Nkiaka, E., Hirons, L. & Opijah, F. (2021).
Understanding the role of user needs and perceptions related to sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts on farmers’ decisions in Kenya: A systematic review. Frontiers in Climate.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.580556 - Osei, M. A., Amekudzi, L. K. & Quansah, E. (2021).
Characterisation of wet and dry spells and associated atmospheric dynamics at the Pra River catchment of Ghana, West Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 34.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100801 - Roberts, A., Fletcher, J. K., Groves, J., Marsham, J. H., Parker, D. J., Blyth, A. M., Adefisan, E. A., Ajayi, V. O., Barrette, R., de Coning, E., Dione, C., Diop, A. … Woodhams, B. J. (2021).
Nowcasting for Africa: Advances, potential and value. Weather.
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3936 - Senghor, H. et al. (2021).
Transport and deposition of Saharan dust observed from satellite images and ground measurements. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v4i2.3165
2020
- Atiah, W. A., Amekudzi, L. K., Aryee, J. N. A., Preko, K., & Danuor S. K. 2020.
Validation of satellite and merged rainfall data over Ghana, West Africa. Atmosphere, 11(8), 859.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/859/htm - Atiah, W. A., Tsidu, G. M. & Amekudzi, L. K. 2020.
Investigating the merits of gauge and satellite rainfall data at local scales in Ghana, West Africa. Weather and Climate Extremes, 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100292 - Balogun, R. A., Adefisan, E. A., Adeyewa, Z. D., & Okogbue, E.C. 2020.
A concise comparison of two rainfall onset definitions using convective properties derived from TRMM precipitation radar data. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00759-w - Giannini, A., Ali, A., Kelley, C. P., Lamptey, B. L., Minoungou, B., & Ndiaye, O. 2020.
Advances in the lead time of Sahel rainfall prediction with the North American Multimodel Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087341 - Hill, P. G., Stein, T. H. M., Roberts, A. J., Fletcher, J. K., Marsham, J. H., & Groves, J. 2020.
How skilful are Nowcasting Satellite Applications Facility products for tropical Africa? Meteorological Applications, 27(6). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1966 - Nkiaka, E., Taylor, A., Dougill, A. J., Antwi-Agyei, P., Adefisan, E. A., Ahiataku, M. A., Baffour-Ata, F., Fournier, N., Indasi, V. S., Konte, O., Lawal, K., A., & Toure, A. 2020.
Exploring the need for developing impact-based forecasting in West Africa. Frontiers in Climate.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2020.565500 - Olaniyan, E., Adefisan, E. A., Balogun, A. A., Oyedepo, J. A. & Lawal, K. A. (2020).
Application of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather forecasts in predicting recent malaria occurrence in Nigeria using a regional scale dynamic malaria model. International Journal of Health, Safety and Environment (IJHSE), 6(05), pp. 560 – 578. http://academiascholarlyjournal.org/ijhse/publications/jun20/Olaniyan_et_al.pdf - Osei, M. A., Amekudzi, L. K., Ferguson, C. R., & Danuor, S. K. 2020.
Inter-comparison of AIRS temperature and relative humidity profiles with AMMA and DACCIWA radiosonde observations over West Africa. Remote Sensing, 12(16).
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/16/2631/htm
2019
- Hunt, K.M. and Fletcher, J.K., 2019. The relationship between Indian monsoon rainfall and low-pressure systems. Climate Dynamics, 53(3-4), pp.1859-1871.
- Keat, W.J., Stein, T.H., Phaduli, E., Landman, S., Becker, E., Bopape, M.J.M., Hanley, K.E., Lean, H.W. and Webster, S., 2019. Convective initiation and storm life cycles in convection‐permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model over South Africa. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145(721), pp.1323-1336.
- Lawal, K.A., Abiodun, B.J., Stone, D.A., Olaniyan, E. and Wehner, M.F., 2019. Capability of CAM5.1 in simulating maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa during boreal spring. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5(4), pp.1815-1838.
- Nkiaka, E., Taylor, A., Dougill, A.J., Antwi-Agyei, P., Fournier, N., Bosire, E.N., Konte, O., Lawal, K.A., Mutai, B., Mwangi, E. and Ticehurst, H., 2019. Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 14(12), p.123003.
- Olaniyan, E., Adefisan, E.A., Balogun, A.A. and Lawal, K.A., 2019. The influence of global climate drivers on monsoon onset variability in Nigeria using S2S models. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5(4), pp.1405-1428.
- Stein, T.H.M., Keat, W., Maidment, R.I., Landman, S., Becker, E., Boyd, D.F.A., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Pankiewicz, G. and Webster, S., 2019. An evaluation of clouds and precipitation in convection-permitting forecasts for South Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 34(1), pp.233-254.
- Walker, D.P., Birch, C.E., Marsham, J.H., Scaife, A.A., Graham, R.J. and Segele, Z.T., 2019. Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 53(7-8), pp.4911-4935.
- Woodhams, B.J., Birch, C.E., Marsham, J.H., Lane, T.P., Bain, C.L. and Webster, S., 2019. Identifying key controls on storm formation over the lake victoria basin. Monthly Weather Review, 147(9), pp.3365-3390.
2018
- Bourgeois, E., Bouniol, D., Couvreux, F., Guichard, F., Marsham, J.H., Garcia‐Carreras, L., Birch, C.E. and Parker, D.J., 2018. Characteristics of mid‐level clouds over West Africa. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144(711), pp.426-442.
- Bhowmick, M. and Parker, D.J., 2018. Analytical solution to a thermodynamic model for the sensitivity of afternoon deep convective initiation to the surface Bowen ratio. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144(716), pp.2216-2229.
- Huang, Q., Marsham, J.H., Tian, W., Parker, D.J. and Garcia-Carreras, L., 2018. Large-eddy simulation of dust-uplift by a haboob density current. Atmospheric Environment, 179, pp.31-39
- Olaniyan, E., Adefisan, E.A., Oni, F., Afiesimama, E., Balogun, A.A. and Lawal, K.A., 2018. Evaluation of the ECMWF Sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts during the peak of West Africa Monsoon in Nigeria. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 6, p.4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00004
- Parker, D.J., 2018. Météorologie de l’Afrique de l’Ouest tropicale: Le manuel du prévisionniste. EDP Sciences.
- Taylor, C.M., Fink, A.H., Klein, C., Parker, D.J., Guichard, F., Harris, P.P. and Knapp, K.R., 2018. Earlier seasonal onset of intense mesoscale convective systems in the Congo Basin since 1999. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(24), pp.13-458.
- Williams, P.A., Crespo, O., Abu, M. and Simpson, N.P., 2018. A systematic review of how vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems to changing climate is assessed in Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 13(10), p.103004.
- Woodhams, B.J., Birch, C.E., Marsham, J.H., Bain, C.L., Roberts, N.M. and Boyd, D.F., 2018. What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa? Monthly Weather Review, 146(9), pp.2757-2780.
Publications with SWIFT partners as contributing authors
- Achugbu, I. C., Dudhia, J., Olufayo, A. A., Balogun, I., A., Adefisan, E. A., & Gbode, I. E. 2020. Assessment of WRF land surface model performance over West Africa. 2020. Advances in Meteorology. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/6205308
- Antwi-Agyei, P. & Amoah, A. B. 2018. Ghana’s vision for national adaptation planning. National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Global Network.
- Balogun, R. A., Adefisan, E. A., Adeyewa, Z. D., & Okogbue, E. C. 2020. Thermodynamic environment during the 2009 Burkina Faso and 2012 Nigeria flood disasters: Case study. In: Leal Filho W., Ogugu N., Adelake L., Ayal D., da Silva I., (eds) African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_143-1
- Cornforth, R., Parker, D.J., Diop-Kane, M., Fink, A.H., Lafore, J.P., Laing, A., Afiesimama, E., Caughey, J., Diongue-Niang, A., Kassimou, A. and Lamb, P., 2019. The First Forecasters’ Handbook for West Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(11), pp.2343-2351.
- Dike, V.N., Addi, M., Andang’o, H.A., Attig, B.F., Barimalala, R., Diasso, U.J., Du Plessis, M., Lamine, S., Mongwe, P.N., Zaroug, M. and Ochanda, V.K., 2018. Obstacles facing Africa’s young climate scientists. Nature Climate Change, 8(6), pp.447-449.
- Finney, D. L., Marsham, J. M., Wilkinson, J. M., Field, P. R., Blyth, A. M., Jackson, L. S., Kendon, E. J., Tucker, S. O., & Stratton, R. A. 2020. African lightning and its relation to rainfall and climate change in a convection-permitting model. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088163
- Fitzpatrick, R. G. J., Parker, D. J., Marsham, J. H., Rowell, D. P., Jackson, L. S., Finney, D., Deva, C., Tucker, S. & Stratton, R. 2020. How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model. Climactic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02881-5
- Klein, C. & Taylor, C. M. 2020. Dry soils can intensify mesoscale convective systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007998117
- Mutemi, J. 2018. Sub-seaonal to seasonal models for improving predictions of high impact weather, climate forecasting and advancing operational research across Africa meteorological services, academic and training centres. S2S Prediction Project July Newsletter, Number 9.
- Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E., & Marsham, J.H. 2020. Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019-January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather, Royal Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3824