convective systems

Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa?

By Dr Carlo Cafaro for GCRF African SWIFT Most of the rainfall in the tropical Africa region comes from convective systems. Forecasting convection is both challenging and crucial – slight changes in surface temperatures, cloud amounts, or winds aloft can drastically affect the timing, location and intensity of the convection. Thus, convective rainfall forecasts can … Continue Reading