nowcasting

GCRF African SWIFT Testbed 1 Report

Testbed 1 was conducted in the first part of 2019, from an operational forecasting office at IMTR Nairobi, at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The Testbed was designed to support SWIFT’s programme of research capability-building in the science of weather prediction. New forecasting and evaluation products were tested. The outcomes of the Testbed will be … Continue Reading

Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa?

By Dr Carlo Cafaro for GCRF African SWIFT Most of the rainfall in the tropical Africa region comes from convective systems. Forecasting convection is both challenging and crucial – slight changes in surface temperatures, cloud amounts, or winds aloft can drastically affect the timing, location and intensity of the convection. Thus, convective rainfall forecasts can … Continue Reading

Intensive training equips forecasters to better predict Africa’s severe storms

By Dr Jennifer Fletcher for GCRF African SWIFT High-impact weather leads to devastating losses in tropical Africa each year. Precipitation forecasts from weather-prediction models remain very poor, and existing tools for very near-term prediction remain under-utilised. In September, African SWIFT is undertaking Testbed 3, an intensive two-week trialling of new approaches and tools to short-term, … Continue Reading

European satellite data key to African nowcasting

Throughout Africa, lives and livelihoods are directly impacted by weather- and climate-related risks. Strengthening national meteorological and climate science capacities holds transformational potential for building climate-resilience across the continent in the coming decade. Nowcasting capability and capacity is an essential part of this goal, delivering warnings and alerts of highly unstable African storms minutes to … Continue Reading

Challenges and solutions to nowcasting for Africa

By Dr Alexander Roberts, National Centre for Atmospheric Research and University of Leeds A new study outlines the challenges in delivering short-term weather warnings in Africa, called nowcasting, and proposes ways solutions can be provided in the coming years. A recent GCRF African SWIFT paper published in the Royal Meteorological Society Journal Weather details approaches … Continue Reading