research

GCRF African SWIFT Testbed 1 Report

Testbed 1 was conducted in the first part of 2019, from an operational forecasting office at IMTR Nairobi, at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The Testbed was designed to support SWIFT’s programme of research capability-building in the science of weather prediction. New forecasting and evaluation products were tested. The outcomes of the Testbed will be … Continue Reading

Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa?

By Dr Carlo Cafaro for GCRF African SWIFT Most of the rainfall in the tropical Africa region comes from convective systems. Forecasting convection is both challenging and crucial – slight changes in surface temperatures, cloud amounts, or winds aloft can drastically affect the timing, location and intensity of the convection. Thus, convective rainfall forecasts can … Continue Reading

Tanzania’s ‘forgotten’ cyclones and concerns for the future

Following the rare event of a tropical cyclone making landfall in Tanzania in April, African SWIFT and FCFA scientists unpacked new research recounting the devastating impacts of previous tropical cyclones from 1872 and 1952. Read the short excerpt below, or visit The Conversation to read the full story. A cyclone, known as Jobo, made landfall near Dar … Continue Reading

How skilful are sub-seasonal precipitation forecasts for Africa?

By Dr Felipe M. de Andrade for GCRF-African SWIFT Demands for accurate sub-seasonal forecasts with intervals from weeks to months into the future are increasing across Africa. Such forecasts in particular may support decision makers to take preparedness actions for preventing or reducing the impacts of severe weather conditions on lives, properties and economic activities. … Continue Reading

Weather forecasts signal meningitis outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa

Scientists are using weather forecasts to predict the location and scale of impending meningitis outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa. It is part of an early-warning system being piloted with the aim of giving health agencies more time to activate emergency response plans. The approach – pioneered by ACMAD, the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development, and … Continue Reading